How Donald Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an upcoming American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A preliminary get-together by the both countries' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told the press at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for negotiations with Putin shelved
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the US president after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.
During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.
Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing several years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump benefited from a history of siding with the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against Iran.
The American leader, actually, is better regarded among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, by contrast, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
In July, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the White House was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the Russian leader called Trump who then promoted the potential meeting in Hungary.
The following day, Trump hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
Trump insisted that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I emerged successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to Ukraine to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something Russia has rejected.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or is able to, cease hostilities.