Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
